Clash of the New Titans… Is Google’s new Nexus One an iPhone Killer?

Yesterday (January 5, 2010) was a day I had been waiting for… the launch by Google of its own quote unquote game changing Nexus One smartphone. Already the pundits are proclaiming that Google will depose Apple as the smartphone leader… Long Live Google!

And we all know what Apple’s buzz machine has been up to. It seems that there will be big announcement at the end of this month where it is likely, quite likely that Steve Jobs himself will launch another game changing device, an iTablet kind of thing.

So how do these products intersect?

A couple of things are clear. In the portable music player space, Apple, the undisputed leader, has reached a turning point. Sales of iPods, the most popular music player on the planet are declining, perhaps for good reason. Using my students as a non-scientific focus group, I have seen again and again that not only do 99+% have an iPod, many have two and some even have three or even more! Could the market be saturated?

The iPhone which as we all know is only available on the ATT network, has proven to be a game changer and massive success, not only surpassing sales goals and a critical element to shareholder value, with Apple shares now pegged at $200+, but also the catalyst to the current generation of wi-fi enabled, touch screen iPods, the disruptive app store with over 100,000 applications available, and yes Mac sales, especially the latest Mac books with the 1-piece “aluminium” chassis/case.

I don’t know about you, but I also hear about more and more “windows” folks making the switch to Mac these days.

I bring this up because right now Apple’s marketing is working at virtuoso/best practice levels. Assuming this is the case, and knowing full well Apple’s penchant for keeping it’s cards close to the chest, I see a strategy here where there is more that meets the eye.

The iPhone is too important to simply let slide. And Apple has shown time and time again it has learned from its past and will not go down without a fight.

So here is an outsider’s perspective of what I expect.

1. Yes, there will be a tablet announcement. And if lead designer Johnny Ive still has his “touch” to create usable, game changing devices, this will be a hit, and will function on a number of levels, including as a book reader. Assuming color and the ability to highlight and add notes and such, let alone offer interactive and collaboration capabilities, the textbook market is ripe for the picking, today.

2. There will also be an iPhone announcement. If I read the tea leaves right, Apple will announce that the iPhone will be available on Verizon and perhaps other carriers too. This is essential and will allow the iPhone to maintain its first mover advantage and current leadership position. Apple has been here before. Remember that iPod was one of many until it became Windows-compatible. And yes, we have a number of articles that the ATT network is overloaded with data usage generated by the iPhone. This is signal for this change if ever there was one.

And to go a bit further out on a limb…

There will also be a next generation iPhone announced with longer battery life, perhaps expandable memory and a better camera, plus the ability to run multiple apps at once. And yes, there will be a software update for those using older versions.

Those are the big ones. And there is more…

3. There has been a lot of noise about an iTunes upgrade. Subscription, Movies on Demand, etc. This may impact all of the above.

4. Lastly, my guess also is that Mac books in particular will also get something new to add more premium value to the product line. Perhaps the addition of the new low voltage chips we have been hearing about that will extend battery life to up to 8 hours, and dreamer that I am, how about quad core chips on these machines?

Add it all up. Apple has been on the “to kill” list for quite some time, and has always stayed at least one step ahead, to ensure leadership in segments it created. I have no reason to expect anything less this time.

That said, Google’s entry is a welcome addition and great for consumers, but an iPhone killer… probably not, if the Apple marketing machine is half what I believe it is. The only wrinkle is that sustaining type of improvements won’t do it. The good news for Apple is that disruptive game changers are what they are all about.

Don’t know about you, but I am looking forward to the next announcement at the end of the month.

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One Response to “Clash of the New Titans… Is Google’s new Nexus One an iPhone Killer?”

  1. Vito Westra Says:

    This is an awesome article, I’ll be adding you to my list.

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